Thursday, October 9, 2014

Tomatoes in October

Jared Diamond in his book Collapse notes that long-term trends are difficult to recognize.  For example, you might have two years of below average temperature, followed by two years of above average temperature, followed by a year where the temperature is about average.  You need to look at the trend over decades, and the trend will then become apparent.

We had a cool summer this year.  A number of letters to the Morning Call noted this and made fun of the idea of global warming.  These were people who were confusing “weather” with “climate.”  They were looking at one year rather than the trend.

So here is a message from an old guy.  In the Fifties and Sixties, we had killing frosts in September.  Now, 50 years later, I am still picking tomatoes in the second week in October.  That is not weather, that is climate, and it is getting warmer.  

You can argue that humans are not causing global warming, but you can’t argue that a global warming trend is not occurring.

I take that back.  You can argue that a global warming trend is not occurring if you are:
     A.  stupid.
     B.  a Republican who hopes to run for President in 2016.

     C.  a paid lobbyist for the oil, natural gas, and coal companies, or a shill for the Koch brothers.

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